Stable prices, tighter inventory, and steady demand are shaping what could be a warm start to the year.
In Ada County, the median sold price finished December at $525,000, down nearly one percent from a year earlier. On its own, a year-over-year dip can sound like a directional change. For the full year, Ada County home prices increased 2.45% compared to 2024, reflecting normal single-digit appreciation rather than a rapid market reset.
The median home price in Canyon County rose to $435,000, up 6.47% from last year. Canyon County finished 2025 with prices up 6.41% year over year. That gap matters as Canyon County tends to be more affordability-driven, and when buyers are payment-conscious, demand often concentrates where monthly payments pencil more easily.
Homes in Ada County spent a median of 36 days on market in December, the exact same as December 2024. In Canyon County the median days on market increased to 49, up eight days from last year.
The number of homes sold in Ada County in 2025 was 8,961, up 7.98% year over year. Canyon County rose to 5,000 home sales in 2025, an increase of 4.93% year over year. Higher sales volume alongside generally steady pricing is usually the footprint of market stability, just with less urgency, and more comparison shopping.
Inventory tightened again as the year closed. Ada County ended December at 2.16 months of supply, with Canyon at 2.25. Months of supply is a pace-based measure: if no new listings came to market, it's how long it would take to sell everything currently for sale at the current rate of sales. The market seasonally narrows in December, and the remaining activity tends to come from buyers and sellers who still need to move, not those waiting for spring.
Mortgage rates will continue to remain a pivotal factor heading into 2026, not because they move in a straight line, but because buyers react quickly when they do. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed rate ended 2025 at approximately 6.15%, the lowest point after starting the year near 7%. These gradual rate changes shift the math for hesitant buyers, pulling demand forward when monthly payments become feasible again.
The 2026 outlook in the Treasure Valley will likely be written by the same two constraints that shaped last year: inventory and affordability. Prices need demand to climb sustainably, while demand needs supply to fall meaningfully. So far, constrained supply has prevented the broad price drops many expect based on national headlines.
Unless inventory expands materially, the most likely outcome is not a reset, it’s a continuation of modest, single-digit price movement, with stretches of flat pricing in some segments. Mortgage rates can change that quickly at the margin. Gradual declines have helped coax buyers back into the market, but lower rates are not a guarantee and if rates fall sharply due to broader economic events, the boost to housing demand can be muted by reduced confidence. Nationally, a large share of homeowners are still sitting on sub-4% mortgages, a lock-in effect that continues to limit would-be sellers and keeps resale supply from expanding as quickly as buyers expect.
Population growth in the Treasure Valley also remains a driver. The Community Planning Association of Southwest Idaho (COMPASS) estimates Ada and Canyon Counties reached 847,840 residents in 2025, adding roughly 2,000 new residents monthly, below the pandemic peak of 3,000 but sufficient to maintain baseline demand. Meanwhile, the "lock-in effect" continues to limit resale supply, many homeowners still sit on mortgage rates that make moving financially unattractive unless life forces the decision. This structural tug-of-war of steady population inflow, restrained resale supply, and rate-dependent affordability maintains the market's stability.
What to watch is not one headline number, but the direction of inventory. If listings build meaningfully into spring, buyers could gain more leverage and price growth could stay muted. If inventory remains tight or gets absorbed quickly as rates drift down, competition can return in the segments where supply is thinnest. Market activity will likely be defined by subtle shifts and segmentation rather than any single sweeping trend.
By the Numbers: 2025 Real Estate Market Overview
Median Price: What You Should Know
The median sale price provides a snapshot of home affordability in the market. It represents the midpoint of all home sales, giving buyers an idea of what they might expect to pay. A higher median price typically reflects a more expensive housing market.
Inventory Trends and What They Mean
The number of homes available for sale shows how much choice buyers have in the market. Changes in this number indicate whether inventory is growing or shrinking, which can affect competition and pricing for buyers.
What Days on Market Tell Us About Demand
The average number of days on market measures how long it takes for homes to sell. A lower number suggests a fast-moving market with high demand, while a higher number indicates homes are taking longer to sell, often reflecting lower buyer activity.
Boise Market Trends
- Median list price: $529,990 (up 6%)
- Median sold price: $522,945 (up 4.6%)
- Average price per square foot: $310 (up 1%)
- Total home sales: 224 (down 27)
- Median days on market: 21 (up 1)
- Available homes for sale: 1.48 month supply (up 0.09)
- 30-year mortgage rate: 6.19% (down 0.53)
Treasure Valley Market Trends
- Ada County: $525,000 (down 1%)
- Eagle: $892,100 (up 5%)
- Garden City: $479,900 (*fewer than ten sales)
- Kuna: $456,135 (up 2.7%)
- Meridian: $495,000 (down 7.6%)
- Star: $599,945 (up 12.5%)
- Canyon County: $435,000 (up 6.5%)
- Caldwell: $412,106 (up 9.9%)
- Middleton: $445,000 (down 5.2%)
- Nampa: $434,995 (up 7.4%)
More From Our Blog
Select information in this We Know Boise market report was obtained from the Intermountain MLS (IMLS) on January 7, 2026. While the data is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed. City-specific data refers to single-family homes on less than one acre, whereas county-level data includes homesites of all sizes. The "months of supply" metric is based on a 12-month rolling average. Home prices mentioned combine both existing and new construction properties. Comparisons are based on year-over-year changes unless otherwise specified.
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