Tight Supply Supports Ada County Home Prices Amid Rate Hikes
Posted by Lisa Kohl on Tuesday, October 10th, 2023 at 9:43am
Ada County's home prices, which plummeted by 16% year-over-year in March, have made a surprising rebound, ending September at nearly the same figures as the previous year. This stability amidst rising mortgage rates paints a captivating picture of the current housing market's resilience.
In Ada County, the median single-family home price fell just 0.9% from a year earlier, settling at $535,000. Home prices in Canyon County declined 2.6% to $415,990. Both counties saw a more than 2% increase from the previous month.
In the Treasure Valley, there are currently 2,333 homes for sale, a staggering 37% decrease from last October. Given the current sales pace, this represents a 2.3-month supply of homes on the market.
With few homeowners selling, the supply of existing homes has been unusually low this year, which has supported home prices. The 2023 housing market has turned out to be better than many expected.
After briefly favoring buyers in the final quarter of last year, the local market shifted toward sellers this spring. By April, property showings and attendance at open houses were on track to surpass 2019 levels.
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Ada County Rebounds: First Year-Over-Year Home Price Gain Since October 2022
Despite mortgage rates at multidecade highs, demand for homes has held up better than in past housing cycles due to near-record amounts of home equity. According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, homeowners are sitting on over $30 trillion in total equity, or roughly $280,000 per household.
Even without a house to sell, a tight job market and rising wages have made purchasing easier for many first-time buyers.
Nationally, first-time purchasers make up 29% of sales. In Ada County, 30% of all homes were bought with cash in September, a considerable increase from a year ago. Buyers without an existing home to sell or a need for financing continue to be the primary drivers of the Boise area market.
Properties priced right are selling quickly. In September, homes in the Treasure Valley sold notably faster than in the previous year, with a median of just 21 days on the market compared to 32 days last year.
While the local real estate market has been remarkably resilient, thanks to sharply rising mortgage rates, local home prices are still below the record highs set in the spring of last year.
The average 30-year mortgage rate finished the week of October 5th at 7.49%, hitting a multidecade high. That's up from 6.48% at the beginning of the year.
Home sales are also notably lower than in recent years. This is partially due to decreased affordability from rising rates and partly because fewer people are relocating.
Tens of thousands of Treasure Valley residents bought homes during the housing boom of the last few years and don't need to move again. Additionally, most homeowners have mortgage rates well below current levels, providing a further incentive to stay put. By the time the rates increased, most people who had wanted to buy a home had already done so.
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Since Labor Day, we have seen an uptick in buyer interest as people look to move before the holidays. While October's trends usually reflect September's, we expect home price appreciation this month will be more subdued than usual.
As mortgage rates approach 8%, and with the typical year-end slowdown looming in November, we expect competition to be less intense than in past years. This could present a prime opportunity for potential buyers.
Boise Real Estate Market Summary for September 2023
- Median list price: $520,000, down $4,900 (-0.93%)
- Median sold price: $519,000, down $800 (-0.15%)
- Average price per square foot: $301 (-2.6%)
- Total home sales: 241 (down 72)
- Median days on market: 15 days (down 13)
- Available homes for sale: 1.92 month supply (down 0.66)
- 30-year mortgage rate: 7.20% (up 1.09)
Treasure Valley Housing Market by Area
- Ada County: $535,000, down $5,000 (-0.9%)
- Eagle: $807,500, down $91,888 (-10.2%)
- Garden City: $611,000 (*fewer than ten sales)
- Kuna: $429,990, down $2,460 (-0.6%)
- Meridian: $515,000, down $14,900 (-1.9%)
- Star: $539,900, down $92,550 (-14.6%)
- Canyon County: $415,990, down $11,000 (-2.6%)
- Caldwell: $374,450, down $27,045 (-6.7%)
- Middleton: $423,200, down $125,800 (-22.9%)
- Nampa: $419,900, down $10,100 (-2.3%)
Lisa Kohl
Lisa carefully studies the local housing market to give her clients the edge when buying or selling a home in Idaho. We Know Boise is a full-service real estate team that combines our LOCAL expertise with traditional know-how to create exceptional results for each of our clients.
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Select information in this We Know Boise market report was obtained from the Intermountain MLS (IMLS) on October 9th, 2023, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. City data refers to single-family homes on less than one acre, while county data includes homesites of all sizes. Months of supply is calculated on a 12-month rolling average. Combining existing homes for sale with new construction is the best way to gauge current home prices and Boise housing market trends. New house prices can be more volatile and can make comparisons, particularly on a month-to-month basis, less reliable.
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