A plunge in new listings sent Ada County home prices to near-record highs in November.
Across the Treasure Valley, supply is shrinking fast due to continued strong demand from buyers and a sharp drop in new listings.
The median home price in Ada County rose to $538,450, just $1,500 shy of the all-time record set in July. Over the last 12 months, prices have risen $111,000, or 26%.
In neighboring Canyon County, the median home price rose to $409,450, up $84,000, also a 26% increase from the year prior. Prices in the county are down 3.4% from the record high set in June–in line with the seasonal trends we typically see this time of year.
In recent months, we have seen a return to the seasonal trends of slowing home price gains in the fall. However, inventory has remained near historical lows, limiting the typical late-year price decreases.
Here's a closer look at a few of our local markets:
- The median home price in Boise rose to $495,000. While below the record high set over the summer, prices are up $80,000 or 19% from last November.
- Home prices in Meridian jumped to a new record of $550,000, up $135,000 or 33% from the year prior.
- Eagle prices surged 34% to $835,833–almost a $211,000 increase in just the last 12 months.
- Nampa prices declined to $399,500 from the record set last month but are up 25%, or $80,000, from a year ago.
Falling by more than a third, the number of newly listed homes in Ada County fell to levels we haven't seen since January. In November, there were 556 resale and move-in ready new construction houses listed and 889 sales, meaning there were more than three sales for every two new listings, shrinking the total supply.
In Ada County, months of inventory fell to 1.01. In Canyon County, the inventory of homes on the market declined to 1.26 months. The supply of houses for sale in both counties peaked in September, then declined in October and November.
To put that in perspective, economists consider anything below a four-month supply to be a seller's market; below two months is typically considered an extreme seller's market.
In recent months, we have seen a significant number of buyers jump back in the market anytime there is an uptick in new listings, putting a floor under demand.
Based on historical trends, the Treasure Valley is not likely to see a pickup in new listings until February. Inventory is likely to continue to contract until then, putting further pressure on home buyers.
While a lot can change between now and next fall, the combination of relentless demand and a quickly shrinking supply is setting 2022 up as another year to remember.
National Home Sales Rose to the Highest Level in 15 Years
The newest information from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that the median U.S. existing-home sale price rose to $353,900 in October, a 13.1% increase from a year prior. The median price in western states, including Idaho, increased to $507,200. The association's data includes non-single-family properties. The same criteria would put Ada County's price at $497,750 and Canyon County's price at $379,900 by comparison.
Rising prices and a heated housing market continue to put pressure on entry-level and first-time buyers. In October, cash transactions in the market rose to 24% from the previous year's 19%. At the same time, the share of first-time buyers fell from 32% to 29%.
Affordable or not, the 2021 market is on track for its strongest sales in 15 years, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. Sales increased 0.8% in October from the prior year, the fastest pace since January. "The housing market is remaining strong," Yun said, due to historically low interest rates, a robust job market, and rising stock market values.
A separate report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency on November 30th showed a larger 17.7% increase in national home prices. Their calculations include new construction sales but not cash transactions.
Boise Real Estate Market Summary for November 2021
- Median list price - $496,636 (up 24.16%)
- Median sold price - $495,000 (up 19.28%)
- Price per square foot - $294 (up 21%)
- Total home sales - 396 (down 10)
- Median days on market - 15 days (up 11 day)
- Available homes for sale - 0.88 month supply (up 0.62)
- 30-year mortgage rates - 3.07% (up 0.30)
Boise Metro Housing Markets by Area
Median sales price:
- Ada County - $538,450
- Eagle - $835,833
- Garden City - $572,500
- Kuna - $476,000
- Meridian - $550,000
- Star - $554,995
- Canyon County - $409,450
- Caldwell - $384,950
- Middleton - $465,000
- Nampa - $399,500
Lisa carefully studies the local housing market to give her clients the edge when buying or selling a home in Idaho. We Know Boise is a full-service real estate team that combines our LOCAL expertise with traditional know-how to create exceptional results for each of our clients.
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Local Housing Trends
Information in this We Know Boise market report was obtained from the Intermountain MLS (IMLS) on December 8th, 2021. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed. City data refers to single-family homes on less than one acre, while county data includes homesites of all sizes. Current inventory is calculated on a twelve-month rolling average. Combining existing homes for sale with new construction is the best way to gauge current home prices and Boise housing market trends. New house prices are much more volatile and can create unreliable comparisons, particularly on a month-to-month basis.