We Know Boise Real Estate

Falling Rates, Fewer Homes, Rising Demand Sets Stage for Treasure Valley Home Sellers

Posted by Lisa Kohl on Wednesday, February 7th, 2024 at 5:24pm

Treasure Valley Housing Market: Increased Buyer Interest, Limited Inventory, and Rising Prices

Falling mortgage rates are drawing buyers back to the Treasure Valley housing market, where a dwindling supply of homes is fueling intensified competition. Demand has increased across all price points, with properties below $500,000 experiencing particularly fierce competition, often leading to bidding wars.

Despite growing interest from homebuyers, the market has fewer homes available now than last February. Currently, 1,775 homes are for sale in Treasure Valley, representing a 10% yearly decline.

In January, the median house price in Ada County rose by 5.8% year-over-year, representing the largest annual gain since August 2022. Median home prices in Canyon County and Boise have also increased, showing a 1.1% and 1.4% rise, respectively.

Following a lackluster performance in the latter half of 2022, sales got off to a strong start last year, with home prices in Ada County surging 12% between January and June. Despite the steady climb in interest rates, a resilient job market and continued wage growth sustained demand throughout 2023, supporting home prices.

Mortgage rates, which peaked at nearly 8% last fall—a 23-year high—ended the week of February 1 at 6.63%, marking the lowest point since last May. Homes typically go under contract one to two months before the sale closes. Therefore, January's sales data reflects purchase decisions made during the seasonally slower holiday period, when rates were comparatively higher.

It's not just the Boise housing market under strain. Supply is so low across the country that the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a decline in purchase applications last week despite the drop in interest rates.

While interest rates have garnered significant attention lately, and reasonably so, the supply of homes for sale—or more specifically, the lack thereof—has been one of the primary drivers of higher home prices over the past decade. In Ada County, for instance, house prices nearly tripled from May 2014 to May 2023. During this period, our area witnessed steady population growth alongside a robust local economy, factors that further fueled the housing market.

While other parts of the country have experienced similar trends, few have seen the unprecedented rise in home prices we have. Reports indicate the Boise metro area led the nation in home price growth throughout the 2010s and early pandemic years.

We have faced low inventory for so long that it's easy to take for granted how minimal it truly is.

The Treasure Valley has a mere 1.8 months' worth of housing supply, below what's traditionally viewed as an extreme seller's market. In contrast, a balanced market, favoring neither buyers nor sellers, typically has around five months of inventory, a level we haven't seen in 10 years.

Inclement weather likely led to sluggish sales last month, which will be reflected in February's sales figures. However, the limited supply and the recent increase in affordability from lower rates will likely lead to higher home prices this month and next.

Fortunately for prospective buyers, the market usually sees an upswing in new listings around March and April, driven by move-up buyers entering the market with existing homes to sell.

Chart showing median home prices in Ada County, Canyon County, and Boise, ID from Jan 2023 to Jan 2024.

Boise Real Estate Market Summary for January 2024

  • Median list price: $484,945, down $10,055 (-2%)
  • Median sold price: $484,995, up $6,545 (1.4%)
  • Average price per square foot: $290 (2.5%)
  • Total home sales: 160 (down 31)
  • Median days on market: 32 days (down 12)
  • Available homes for sale: 1.18 month supply (down 0.05)
  • 30-year mortgage rate: 6.64% (up 0.37)

Treasure Valley Housing Market by Area

  • Ada County: $513,100, up $28,100 (5.8%)
  • Eagle: $795,000, down $48,000 (-5.7%)
  • Garden City: $557,500, up $105,500 (23.2%)
  • Kuna: $447,490, down $32,455 (-6.8%)
  • Meridian: $524,900, up $79,900 (18%)
  • Star: $485,320, down $13,180 (-2.6%)
  • Canyon County: $399,990, up $4,545 (1.1%)
  • Caldwell: $380,080, up $13,090 (3.6%)
  • Middleton: $450,000, down $122,056 (-21.3%)
  • Nampa: $400,000, down $3,967 (-1%)

Boise Real Estate Agent Lisa Kohl

Lisa Kohl

Lisa carefully studies the local housing market to give her clients the edge when buying or selling a home in Idaho. We Know Boise is a full-service real estate team that combines our LOCAL expertise with traditional know-how to create exceptional results for each of our clients.

Email Lisa

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Select information in this We Know Boise market report was obtained from the Intermountain MLS (IMLS) on February 7th, 2024, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. City data refers to single-family homes on less than one acre, while county data includes homesites of all sizes. Months of supply is calculated on a 12-month rolling average. Combining existing homes for sale with new construction is the best way to gauge current home prices and Boise housing market trends. New house prices can be more volatile and can make comparisons, particularly on a month-to-month basis, less reliable.

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