Treasure Valley home prices reached new highs in June.
The median price of single-family homes in Ada County finished the month at a record $324,147, up 18.84 percent over the past year.
Resale properties are leading price gains with new construction slipping to 25 percent of all homes sold in June, down from 29 percent year to date.
Up 21.86 percent over the previous 12 months, house prices in Canyon County jumped to $223,000, also a new record. As we have seen all year, the lowest cost areas continue to see the largest price increases.
In Boise, the median house price hit $297,750 just missing the previous high set in March.
The supply of homes for sale in Ada County increased to 1.52 months of supply from 1.43.
The number of homes that sold in the past month remained basically unchanged from May. The increase in supply was driven by a slight increase in new listings as opposed to a decrease in demand, typical for this time of year. For the same reason, available homes for sale in Canyon County increased to 1.40 months of supply.
Median days on market remained unchanged at 8. For a house listed for sale today expect closer to 14 to 18 days for a seller to accept an offer. Keep in mind, days on market can be a bit tricky as it reflects market conditions when the property was listed for sale, not when it sold.
Most of the homes that were marked as sold in June were listed for sale in April to mid-May. The same could be said for sale prices.
Up, up and away?
While double-digit price increases aren’t sustainable, they tell us little about where the market is headed in the short term.
Price changes aren’t a prediction of the future; they are simply a record of the past.
The best predictor of home values has always been the number of homes for sale compared to the demand from real estate buyers. This is typically calculated as months of supply. If no new houses were listed, this is how long it would take for all the homes currently on the market to sell. A balanced market, not favoring buyers or sellers, is typically considered 4 to 6 months.
In Ada County, we are currently looking at just 1.52 months of supply, down from two months, a year ago. In the same timeframe, the actual number of homes for sale declined to 1,440 from 1,930. June was the 45th month in a row we have seen a year over year decline in the number of homes for sale.
During the last recession, supply increased for two and a half years before prices finally peaked in July 2006 and subsequently declined.
Similarly to what we saw in 2014, a small dip in prices can happen relatively quickly, but a significant drop won't happen any time soon.
As always, I recommend buying, or selling, a home when the time is right for you and your unique situation. There is no guarantee of higher/lower prices in the future.
Now the good news for buyers
Over the last few years, mid-July to early September has been the best time of the year to buy. There are typically more homes for sale and time on the market tends to be more reasonable in late summer.
Additionally, mortgage rates have declined in five of the past six weeks and are now at the lowest level since spring.
Having said that you still need to be on your A game. Correctly priced and marketed homes are selling very quickly. One of my recent listings had five offers on the first day.
The best time to buy or sell will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood and even property type to property type.
People with school-aged children tend to be on the hunt in the spring months whereas downsizers and young professionals tend to be more active in late summer and fall.
June Boise Real Estate Market
The average price per square foot for Boise is $179, an increase of 21.77 percent compared to the same time last year. Boise housing market summary:
- Median list price - $296,500 (up 16.30%)
- Median sold price - $297,500 (up 16.54%)
- Total home sales - 541 (down from 573)
- Median days on market - 6 days (down 2 days)
- Available homes for sale - 1.02 months supply (down from 1.47)
- 30-year mortgage rates - 4.57% (up from 3.90%)
Idaho Housing Markets in June
Median sales price:
- Ada County - $324,147
- Eagle - $435,000
- Garden City - $315,700
- Kuna - $250,500
- Meridian - $335,236
- Star - $387,900
- Canyon County - $223,000
- Caldwell - $196,445
- Middleton - $257,359
- Nampa - $217,500
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NOTE: Information in this market report was obtained from the Intermountain MLS (IMLS) on July 9th, 2018. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All information refers to single-family homes. Current inventory is calculated on a twelve-month rolling average. We believe existing homes for sale are the best way to gauge current Boise home prices and Boise housing market conditions. New construction home prices are much more volatile and tend to exaggerate the numbers, particularly on a month to month basis.